Momentum vs Pressure

Welcome to the deep heat of group play as we continue our analysis of the 2018 World Cup using Google Cloud. In this post we take a step back from stats and World Cup facts and look at the human side of competition, in particular pressure and momentum. The former being extremely challenging to objectively quantify, but it sure it fun to dissect.

Momentum can be a funny thing — and make for interesting conversation surrounding predictive data models involving the world’s game. Pressure is an entirely different animal, and rarely (if at all) can be quantified in any sport across any predictive model. Quite simply, it’s difficult to find another matchup featuring two teams in such different states upon facing one another. Croatia is surging. Argentina is flat-lining. Pressure? All on Argentina (all on Messi?). Momentum? Squarely in Croatia’s corner. To compound matters, if Iceland wins, Argentina may have a whole different set of problems

Group D could very well stand for disaster for Argentina, if they don’t execute against Croatia — landing 3 points for a win. A tie for Argentina could pan out to be game over as we look ahead to final match ups.

Lots of soccer to play and the implications of continued draws will be mind boggling. Net-net Argentina needs a win. To say the least: these two teams enter the match in contrasting moods given the state of the group.

Croatia is floating after an impressive 2–0 win over Nigeria and boasts one of their best squads in years. They are seeking the same success they found 20 years ago in France, when they reached the semi-finals and finished third. This represents their strongest chance in years to accomplish that. How confident is Croatia in defeating Argentina? Just ask midfielder Mateo Kovacic, who went on record saying:

Argentina, meanwhile, is searching for any kind of momentum after a horrendous performance in a 1–1 draw with Iceland. From a pressure standpoint, most if not all of the burden rests on the shoulders of Lionel Messi and his team after a horrid opening match. Messi failed to score despite firing 11 shots and is currently 0 for his last 21 attempts in World Cup action. The greatest player in the world probably feels alone right now. No Argentinian team during his era has relied upon him more than his current squad — and he’s coming off a match in which he failed to score a penalty in a lackluster 1–1 draw against a sizeable underdog.

It’s a safe bet to say Croatia has been paying close attention to what midfielder Ivan Rakitic has been telling them. As a teammate of Messi’s at Barcelona, there is no doubt Rakitic is key to develop and deploy tactics to neutralize Messi. Croatia also boasts a monster of a front man in Mario Madzukic in addition to the talented midfielder Luka Modric. Croatia has scored at least one goal in their last 5 World Cup matches — and they’re trying to buck the trend of never having defeated a South American team in World Cup play — going 0 for 4 in their history.

Momentum is one thing — pressure is another. While momentum can be measured only in segments such as recent match victories, goals, opponents and others — there really isn’t any true measure for pressure. Argentina will only go as far as Lionel Messi will take them. He knows it — they know it — the world knows it. Argentina’s success in this tournament rests entirely on Messi snapping his 0 for 21 shots-on-goal skid in World Cup play. Throw in the fact this indeed may be Messi’s final World Cup appearance — and “the other greatest player in the world” Cristiano Ronaldo is having a spectacular tournament so far — and it seems overwhelming.

Our player focused model still favors Argentina. We are giving them a 46.1% chance to do just that. A draw is the second most likely outcome at 27.4%. A Croatia win — which would be a crushing blow to Argentina’s chances — comes in 26.5% — which is still waaaaaaaay too close for comfort if you’re an Argentina fan.

Google Search estimates are similar in to our model, but lean a bit less on Croatia and towards a draw instead:

Bing’s predictions:

Enjoy the match! No pressure :)

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